First Published: July 2014
Re-emergence of a Traditional Regional Power: Independent
Kurdistan Crescent is on the Horizon
Introduction
The convolution of the Kurdish national political dilemma
with the division of Kurdistan amongst Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Armenia and
Azerbaijan had convinced many a reunited independent Kurdistan to be an epic
dream. This pessimism was running high during the Cold War era. The States
sharing major parts of Kurdish land were divided along the bipolar structure
with each receiving sufficient military, political and economic support from
their respective polar super powers to crush any Kurdish struggle infused to
change the status quo of Kurdistan.
The collapse of the bipolar structure varied the political
equation fundamentally. Kurdistan is placed with a unique status in the new
world order. The prospect of an independent Kurdistan Crescent in light of the
current changing political dynamic in the Middle East is becoming an imminent
reality.
This presentation will look at the unfavourable political,
economic and security circumstances that resulted in maintaining the status quo
of a divided Kurdistan throughout the Cold War era. The presentation will then
look at the political, economic and security changes underway in the post-cold
war Middle East and highlight how these changes facilitate the rise of Kurdish
political power in the region. For this purpose, the presentation will
specifically look at each part of Kurdistan and highlight how an emerging
independent Kurdistan Crescent stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the
Persian Gulf could contribute to peace and stability in the region.
A. Kurdistan in the Cold War Era
After the division of Kurdistan in 1923, the western powers'
pursuit of vital economic and geo-strategic political interests maintained a
divided Kurdistan. The economic interests were primarily in the context of
exploiting petroleum and mineral resources in the newly made artificial States
in which Kurdistan was parcelled out.
With the commencement of the Cold War between the capitalist
and communist blocks after the Second World War (WWII) in 1945, the
unfavourable political circumstances in relation to Kurdistan deepened further.
The bipolar security implications consolidated the newly made international
boundaries that divided Kurdistan into several parts.
a. Turkey
In the case of Turkey - Turkey bordered the former Soviet
Union and was a corridor for the Soviet Union to enter into the Middle East and
consequently the Persian Gulf. This would give Soviet Union a strong security
and economic superiority in the region. Turkey's geopolitical location from the
US perspective was therefore strategic to contain communist expansion into the
Middle East. For this purpose, Turkey secured military and economic aid from
the US government under the Truman Doctrine instituted in 1947 to repel the
communist threat. This was part of the new containment policy that the US
deployed in the States that were amenable to the communist expansion.
In this way, Turkey bolstered its security by serving the US
geopolitical interests in the region. Turkey's security was further
consolidated and guaranteed by its admittance into the NATO in 1953. Thus
ensuring Turkey's security and territorial integrity from a matter of
geopolitical interest was translated into a treaty arrangement under the NATO
membership. The US went even further by establishing several military bases
inside Turkey.
b. Iran
Iran with the Eastern and second biggest part of Kurdistan
under its control attained a similar geopolitical importance within the context
of the US containment foreign policy. Iran's vast petroleum resources were also
vital for the Western States' strategic security and economic interests.
In case of Iran, the Soviet Union had already a significant
military presence in Iran. The Soviet Union had laid their foothold in Iran in
1941 along with the British and had established permanent military bases. The
West perceived the Soviet presence in Iran as a significant threat to its
security and economic interest in the region.
Therefore, when World War II was over, the US pushed for the
removal of all foreign forces from Iran by January 1946. This was in the
context of supporting Iran's integrity and independence. However, the move was
primarily aimed at removing Soviet military presence and influence in Iran.
The establishment of the independent Republic of Kurdistan
(also known as Mahabad) in parts of the Eastern Kurdistan region in 1946
therefore did not coincide with the US strategic interest in the region as the
move was within the Soviet sphere of influence. The Soviet withdrew its forces
from Iran after extensive US pressure and striking oil deals with Iran. The US
further supported Iran's monarchic regime to overcome the Republic of Kurdistan
and reoccupy the Kurdish region in late 1946.
Iran's geopolitical importance continued until Iran's
monarchic regime was replaced by the Islamic regime in 1979. From then onwards,
the US fear of Soviet communist expansion into Iran reduced so long as Iran's
newly established Islamic regime remained intact.
However, the Islamic regime itself became a new security
dilemma for the West and required a new containment policy. This security
concern was mainly in the context of Islamic regime's power posture and its
security threats to the Western interests including to that of Israel.
c. Iraq
The British invaded much of the areas what is currently
called Iraq by 1918. After the First World War at the time of the partition of
the region, British attached Southern Kurdistan to Iraq to take advantage of
its large oil deposits. The British were first able to drill oil out the
Kurdish land from the town of Kerkuk on 14 October 1927. This was the
commencement of the oil curse that would cap Kurdish aspirations for self-rule
in the southern region of Kurdistan (Iraqi Kurdistan) for a long time to come.
Britain administered Iraq directly or indirectly for
eighteen years until 1932 after which it moved out of Iraq, as it could no
longer rule Iraq at the expense of its domestic problems. However, the Iraq
Petroleum Company (IPC) set up by the British continued its operation and
therefore the British had no interest in separating the Kurdish region from
Iraq because of the lucrative oil interests.
Britain presented Iraq as a modern sovereign State and
recommended Iraq to become a full member of the League of Nations in 1932.
The Kurds strongly resisted their inclusion into the new
artificial State of Iraq and even proclaimed independence in 1925 under the
then Kurdish leader Sheik Mahmood. The British took the Kurdish independence as
a risk to its oil interests in Iraq and therefore supressed the movement
ruthlessly.
The British oil interests through the operation of the IPC
was maintained until the Ba'athist seized power in a military coup in 1968 and
nationalised the Iraqi oil industry by June 1972. The Ba'athist regime removed
Iraq out the British sphere of influence and established closer ties with the
Soviet Union.
With Saddam's assertive animosity against Israel and the
Western interests intensified in 1980s and 1990s. The US undertook a similar
containment policy that resulted in two full scale wars against Iraq and
removal of Saddam's dictatorship in 2003.
d. Syria
After the partition of the Ottoman Empire at the end of
World War I in 1918, France received Syria under the secret Sykes-Picot
agreement signed between France and Britain that also included a relatively
small part, which is considered Kurdistan [Rojava], in northern Syria, a region
currently considered to be under the direct administration of PKK offshoot
Democratic Union Party (Kurdish: Partiya Yekîtiya Demokrat) (PYD). Later France
was formally given the mandate of Syria by the League of Nations in 1923.
France continued to administer Syria until 1943 after which Syria and Lebanon
became two independent States.
In contrast to Turkey and Iran, Syria joined the Soviet bloc
in 1955. The Soviet provided Syria with significant military aid to counter
balance the US influence in the region.
Therefore, Kurdish politics did not attain much attention
due to strong bipolar division and rivalries between the Western and Eastern
blocks.
B. Kurdistan: Post Cold War Era
In the post-Cold War era, the balance of power increasingly
shifted in favour of Kurdistan as a result of significant strategic,
geo-political, economic, and demographic developments in the region.
Obliteration of the cold war dynamic to an extent unleashed
the Kurdish political power to grow significantly in the region. Kurdistan's
growing importance is mainly due to its geographical location and its role in
the security and stability of the region.
Kurdistan lies in the most strategically important part of
the region. It not only bounds the major States of the region together, it
links the Mediterranean Sea to the Persian Gulf.
Furthermore, Kurdistan is a bridge as well as a barrier
between Europe and the Middle East. The current political and security
developments in the Middle East including the growth of Islamic radicalism give
Kurdistan a prominent security role. In particular, Kurdistan can serve as a
barrier against the security threats and instability that emanates from the
region. For these reasons, Kurdistan is increasingly attracting strategic and
geo-political importance in the region.
Below are a number of geo-strategic, political, economic and
security factors that give Kurdish politics a more prominent role in the
region:
1. Rivalry between Western and Eastern blocks:
Although the Cold War has officially ended, the traces of
rivalry between the Western and Eastern blocs can still be felt in the new
security dynamic of the region. Iran, Iraq and Syria for a long time were or
have been in the former Soviet Union or Eastern bloc's sphere of influence. The
three countries continued defiance of the West posed a significant threat to
the Western countries long-term security, economic and political interests in
the region including that of Israel. For the West, these countries were a
'triangle of threat' that had to be neutralised to protect their interest in
the region.
With Iraq being removed from the triangle, the next turn was
Syria followed by Iran. In this greater Middle Eastern plan or political
reshuffle, Kurds inevitably became an important actor for their geostrategic
location in the region.
2. New Political Dynamic in the Middle East
The new political dynamic in the Middle East commencing with
the 'Arab Spring' is destined to open the Middle East to democratic and popular
governments. The Western States are backing such changes in the framework of
opening up the region for economic liberalisation and establishing Western
friendly democratic governments.
Kurds with a population of over 40 million, lying at the
heart of the Middle East are an integral part of this changing political
dynamic in the region. Kurdish politics have proven to be driven by secular
orientation and pro-Western tendencies. In addition, many Kurdish political
groups share mutual political, economic and security interests with the Western
States in the region. In particular, Kurds have played an important role in the
region to curb terrorism and religious fundamentalism.
These factors make the Kurds natural allies of the Western
countries. For these reasons, Kurdistan will not only gain political importance
but also play an important role in establishing security and stability in the
region.
3. Turkey and Iran's historic struggle for superiority
Historically, Turkey and Iran have been competing for
superiority in the region and as a result stayed each other's arch-enemies for
the most part of their history. In the wake of changing political dynamic of
the region, both countries have realised that in the near future Kurds will
gain sufficient power to tilt the balance of power in favour of one or the
other depending on which country can forge an alliance with the Kurds.
Their predecessors, the Ottomans and Safavids, went through
the same political calculation in the sixteen century AD that resulted in the
battle of Chalderan in 1514. They finally divided Kurdistan territory between
themselves through the treaty of Zuhab in 1639 to avoid the balance of power
being tilted towards one or the other.
Turkey's radical policy change towards South Kurdistan is
partly because of Turkey's perception of this future threat or development.
Turkey has now officially recognised the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
and has developed strong economic ties. Many believe the purpose is to make KRG
depend on Turkey for its economic development. Once this dependent relation is
established, Turkey will have sufficient leverage over the KRG to prevent
forging any future alliance with Iran. In this context, Turkey commenced
reconciliation process with its own Kurdish citizens in the framework of peace
negotiation with Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned Kurdish leader.
Iran has also tried to become closer to the Kurdish
political parties. Iran has strong political relations with PUK and according
to several reports it is also supporting PKK against Turkey. However, the
growing Turkish-Kurdish political and economic relations indicate that Iran may
have been left behind if it does not adopt radical policy change and rapprochement
with the Kurds.
4. Shi'a Crescent
The West and in particular Israel have perceived a growing
threat from what was first highlighted by King Hussein of Jordan as the 'Shi'a
Crescent'. Iran's is the heart of this Shi'a political influence which
stretches to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Iran has pursued an assertive role in
influencing the political conflicts of these regions. It has long assisted and
financed groups such as Hamas from Palestine and Hezbollah from Lebanon against
Israel. It has also intervened heavily in Iraq and Syria to change the course
of the conflict in its favour. This growing power posture has alarmed the
Western and Sunni States in the region, especially Israel and Gulf Arab Sunni
States. These concerned States are directing the political change to deal with
the security threats emanating from the Shi'a Crescent.
These strategic security concerns can primarily be dealt
with by making geopolitical changes in the region. In this context, reshuffling
the political map of the region is an important part of the new political
dynamic.
If a strong independent state of Kurdistan, stretching for
the Mediterranean Sea to the Persian Gulf would be an important security
development that would divide the geographic continuity of the Shi'a Crescent.
It would also counterbalance the threats that may originate from the Shi'a
Crescent. Therefore Kurdistan would play an important role in the region's new
security dimension and stability.
5. Economic Potentials
Iraqi Kurdistan's huge oil and gas reserves and rapid
economic development is also an important factor in altering the political
equation of the region in favour of the Kurds. It is not only increasing the
political power of South Kurdistan but also contributing to the Kurdish cause
of other parts of Kurdistan.
Iraqi Kurdistan has attracted the major oil and gas
companies such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Total and Gazprom. Kurdistan has
successfully built its first oil pipeline under its direct control. Western
Kurdistan's interim administration has also controlled the major oil region
promising for future energy developments.
6. Rising Kurdish Political Struggle
In addition to the above mentioned factors, Kurdish
political awareness and their struggle for nationhood has also grown
significantly.
We will now analyse each part of Kurdistan within the
respective occupying countries individually:
a) South Kurdistan - Iraq
The self-governing Kurdistan Region is becoming an important
power house within Greater Kurdistan. With Saddam's removal in Iraq, the region
has gained significant political and economic power. It is increasingly
consolidating its political and diplomatic status on the regional and
international levels. The region has been transformed into the world capital
for oil and gas exploration. Many countries and conglomerates have invested
billions of dollars in the region.
The Kurdistan region has also established a well-equipped
strong military force. It has the capacity to counter balance any Iraqi Shia or
Sunni security threat to its territorial integrity. The Kurdistan region is
therefore on the path of full independence and Iraq cannot stop it save for the
regional intervention. Iraq has already lost its unitary statehood status in
the international system and has two identities which are Arab Iraq and Kurdish
Kurdistan.
The growing political and economic power of South Kurdistan
is also positively affecting other parts of Kurdistan and the wider region.
Kurdistan Region is playing an important role in the Kurdish political conflict
in West and North Kurdistan. It is also playing an important role in regional
and international cooperation against terrorism.
These strategic political, economic and security compliments
of South Kurdistan will raise its political profile and increasingly make Kurds
as one of the main actors in the Middle Eastern politics.
b) Western Kurdistan - Syria
Syria was frontline State within the former Soviet Union or
Russian sphere of influence in the Mediterranean region. Russia's only naval
base in the Mediterranean Sea is in Syria. Syria therefore has geostrategic
importance for Russia. Syria also borders Israel and has championed the
Palestinian cause. It is against Israeli policies in Palestine. It also
shelters more than half a million registered Palestinians refugees1 and has not
nationalised them as Jordan did to its millions of Palestinian refugees.
These competing regional and international politics explains
the current unsettling internal conflict in Syria. The West expects a new
Syrian government that is outside the Russian and Iranian sphere of influence.
A government that is friendly to Israel and Western interests and perhaps
nationalises the Palestinians refugees.
The Kurdish issue therefore does not seem to influence the
future Syrian State provided that Kurdish role does not become a necessity in
these political manoeuvrings. However, as the last two years political
developments in the West Kurdistan indicate, Kurds cannot be ignored. The
consolidation of the Kurdish political entity with the declaration of an
interim administration indicates that Kurds are inevitably an important part of
the political developments in Syria and the wider region.
Therefore, one way or another, the West, Russia, regional
States and even Syria itself have to deal and live with the new political
reality of Kurdish self-rule in the Western Kurdistan. Iran and Syria appear to
be supportive of the Kurdish political gain in the Western Kurdistan so long as
the conflict continues.
Turkey has rejected the Kurdish interim administration.
This, however, may not have any significant impact for three main reasons.
Firstly, Turkey cannot interfere militarily because of the Syrian, Russian and
Iranian opposition. Secondly, Turkey is entangled in its own severe internal
conflict with the PKK and has to do deal with these matters more urgently.
Thirdly, the growing strategic economic relations with the South Kurdistan
require Turkey to maintain peace and stability in the region rather than making
further political complications with the Kurds.
Therefore, the balance of power in the region is conducive
for the Western Kurdistan to consolidate its power in line with the political
gains of South Kurdistan. However, the complexity of Syrian conflict involving
many regional and international powers puts any Kurdish gain at constant risk.
Kurds are required to take this new political development very seriously.
c) North Kurdistan - Turkey
Turkey is still a member of NATO and has the second biggest
military amongst the member States. However, with the end of the communist
expansionist threat, Turkey's strategic importance for the US and the West has
reduced considerably. On the other hand, the rising Kurdish nationalism and
population is laying irretrievable impacts on the Turkey's internal political
dynamic.
Turkey has reached the stage where it can no longer deny the
Kurdish political reality or deal with the Kurdish issue militarily. PKK's
three decades old freedom movement has resulted in the deaths of thousands of
its soldiers. It has cost Turkey billions of dollars and depleted its national
budget. The conflict has further hindered investments and Turkish access to
energy resources from the Middle Eastern countries.
In the last two years, PKK has also gained significant
military ground inside North Kurdistan. Encouraged by its political power gain
in the Western Kurdistan, PKK also announced for the first time that it is
altering its long practised hit and run guerrilla tactics with establishing
permanent bases inside the border regions of North Kurdistan.
At the same time, the Kurdish unbalanced population growth
in Turkey has created further underlying problems for Turkey. According to
several academic researches, if the current Kurdish population growth rate continues
in Turkey, Kurdish population will surpass the Turkish population and will
become the majority by 2038. This has created a major concern for the Turkish
government forcing the Turkish Prime Minister to publicly appeal to the Turks
to increase their birth rate. This is an important part of soft politics for
Kurds in Kurdistan that will have significant impact on Turkish politics in
decades to come.
These political and demographic developments require Turkey
to implement urgent plans to reconcile its restive Kurdish population.
Erdogan's recent peace process with the PKK is very much the result of these
impelling significant factors. Therefore, Turkey has no choice but to unleash
the rising Kurdish political power in Turkey.
d) Eastern Kurdistan - Iran
Iran's growing political power is problematic for the
Kurdish national cause in the Eastern Kurdistan. The US and other Western
States in essence do not seem to be against a Shi'a Iran for strategic
political and economic reasons in the region as long as Iran does not threaten
their political and economic interests. The US and other Western States' red
line for Iran is restricting Iran from becoming a nuclear power that could
change the balance of power and threaten their underlying interests in the
region. The Obama administration appears to be more dovish in dealing with
Iran's nuclear problem at least at this point of time.
Nevertheless, similar to Turkey, Iran's geo-political
importance has reduced in the post-Cold War era. In addition, the threats that emanates
from the so called Shi'a Crescent as well as the nuclear program, puts Iran in
a weaker status within the international relations as compared to the Cold War
era. Therefore, Kurdish political movement within Iran will not face similar
Cold War consequences.
Although the grassroot Kurdish population stay dormant
politically compared to the activism of their brethren in other parts of
Kurdistan, their political awareness is growing and it is inevitable that the
Kurdish political power in other parts of Kurdistan will also effect Eastern
Kurdistan.
C. Kurdistan Crescent is on the Make
Therefore these rapid geo-strategic, political and economic
developments within the Greater Kurdistan signal the emergence of a Kurdistan
Crescent.
First of all the rising Kurdish political power in South,
West and North Kurdistan has enabled Kurds to be one of the main actors in
Middle East politics. The vice-chairman of Turkey's ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP), Hüseyin Çelik, has "ranked Kurds among the main
actors in Middle Eastern politics".2
Secondly, the international borders diving Greater Kurdistan
are increasingly becoming less defined. Kurdistan Regional Government and
Rojawa (Syrian Kurdistan) interim administration are controlling the
international border that divides the Western and Southern Kurdistan. Kurds can
now freely move between these two parts of Kurdistan; not mentioning some
recent political tension between PDK and PYD that resulted in closing the
border for some time.
The PKK has also controlled the border region between Qandil
Mountain and North Kurdistan. The border between Eastern Kurdistan and Southern
Kurdistan is also loosely controlled allowing Kurds from the Eastern Kurdistan
to enter South Kurdistan without any impediment.
Secondly, as the borders are disappearing, the Kurdish
identity is consolidating. Kurds are claiming their political status stronger
in the vast majority of Kurdistan.
Thirdly, and most importantly, there is a growing feeling of
Kurdish unification throughout Kurdistan, which is uniting members of the
Kurdish community. The current efforts in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to hold
Kurdistan national congress that includes Kurds from all parts of Kurdistan and
the relations developing between the different parties of Greater Kurdistan are
unprecedented.
Fourthly, the changing political dynamic in the Middle East
unlike the Cold War era is in line with the Kurdish national interests. Kurds
are set to gain a lion's share in this new political reshuffle.
Fifthly, the growing Kurdish political power in the region
is making the Kurds an important part of the political equation for peace and
stability in the Middle East. In particular, the revival of Kurdistan Crescent
will underpin geographical containment of religious power posture and
radicalism in the region. The Kurdistan Crescent will weaken the so called
Shi'a Crescent.
Conclusion
Therefore, the changing political dynamic within the Middle
East and the growing Kurdish political power in the Kurdish triangle of South,
West and North Kurdistan is heading towards the revival of the Kurdistan
Crescent. With Syria and Iraq appearing to be out the equation to restrain any
such a development, it is only Turkey and Iran than can stand in the way of
Kurdistan's full independence. However, with the changing internal political
dynamic in Turkey leading to the rise of Kurdish political power, it may only
be a matter time that the Kurdish political power will sweep through North and
Eastern Kurdistan. Therefore, Kurdistan Crescent may well be on the horizon.
1 http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2013/10/unrwa-syria-palestine-refugees-crisis.html 
2 http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=122997
In February 2012 the first official and business delegation from Lithuania visited the Kurdistan Region to meet with local officials and explore potential areas of cooperation.
A female unit of YPG in Northern Syria
A group photo of a unit of female PJAK guerrillas in their camp situated in the mountains that make up the Iran Iraq border. The PJAK is a Kurdish separatist group fighting a guerrilla war for Kurdish independence in Iran. They were founded in 2004 when they split from the PKK which is fighting for Kurdish independence in Turkey. Both groups follow a general socialist ideology and both have male and female fighting units.
Thousands attend the funeral ceremony of the three female Kurdish activists shot in Paris, in Diyarbakir, the largest city in Turkey's mainly Kurdish southeast. The bodies of the activists, including that of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) co-founder Sakine Cansiz, arrived by plane on Wednesday evening in Diyarbakir, January 2013.
Kurdish security forces having just taken over an air base and other posts abandoned by the Iraqi military in the ethnically mixed Kirkuk city, one of the 'disputed regions', remove tanks left behind by the Iraqi forces which collapsed with the onslaught of ISIS in nearby Mosul, June 2014
Kurdish Peshmerga troops and tanks are deployed on the outskirts of Kirkuk, some 250km north of Baghdad. Iraq's Kurdish region sent its forces to capture the city when the local Iraqi army crumbled under the ISIS onslaught in June 2014.
Rojava: Syria's Unknown War - Vice News, 2013
All writers' views in articles are their own and do not necessarily represent the opinion of the Asfar team.
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